Developing a Theory of Change

The first step when designing your evaluation should be to map the components of your intervention and describe how you will achieve the desired outcomes. This is known as a Theory of Change – your theory for predicting how the intervention will bring about the desired change.

What is a Theory of Change?

For the purposes of this framework,  a Theory of Change is defined as:

“a visual representation of a programme’s inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and underlying causal mechanisms.”

A Theory of Change describes the underlying assumptions about how planned activities will lead to intended outcomes. By developing a model setting out your Theory of Change, you can understand how different aspects of your programme fit together to achieve your final goal.

TASO has a two-strand approach to Theory of Change development:

  • Strand one – Core Theory of Change – is used for simplicity and to assist HE providers with planning interventions and evaluation activities. The Core ToC guidance follows a simple model of mapping inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and impact. It provides a high-level snapshot of how we expect an activity to lead to impact.
  • Strand two – Enhanced Theory of Change – is used for evaluability and to assist HE providers with robustly evaluating interventions and activities. The Enhanced ToC guidance provides a format for capturing much more information about activities and mechanisms by which we expect change to happen. It includes: context; mapping of links between activities and outcomes; and assumptions and change mechanisms.

Theory of Change examples developed by HE providers seeking to evaluate student mental health interventions are given below.

Please note that the following examples demonstrate a work in progress. The contents of the Theories of Change does not necessarily reflect TASO’s views or position.

Core Theory of Change examples

Leeds Beckett University Core ToC

Enhanced Theory of Change examples

University of East London EToC

University of Sheffield Core EToC

University Mentoring Organisation (UMO) EToC diagram only

Key considerations for evaluating interventions designed to improve student mental health

1. It’s vital to describe your intervention.

A common limitation of studies on   student mental health is that interventions are outlined in insufficient detail to allow accurate replication. HE providers should therefore include thorough intervention descriptions in their evaluations to allow others to build on their work. The TASO Enhanced Theory of Change template provides a framework to capture all the key design components of an intervention – for example, what are the precise activities involved? Who delivers them, and when? Making detailed information like this available helps others to adopt and adapt practice – see above.

2. Consider who is involved in existing research.

Many existing intervention studies on student mental health recruit students through poster and email campaigns, which results in an overrepresentation of white females in the evidence because these students are more likely to seek help and to use mental health services than males and those from marginalised ethnic backgrounds. In other studies, students are encouraged to participate in exchange for credits needed as part of Social Science courses. This evidence should therefore be treated with caution as it may not be generalisable to students on different courses. The current evidence also does not generally consider the impact of interventions on different subgroups of students, for instance, any variation by age, gender, sexuality and ethnicity. Understanding the exact population(s) that existing research samples relate to is vital when you are considering evidence to underpin new or existing programmes. Any adaptations or new interventions should be grounded in a strong Theory of Change to break down the causal mechanisms as to why an activity will lead to a desired outcome.

3. Consider factors like feasibility and acceptability.

When developing your Theory of Change, consider the full set of assumptions about how planned activities will lead to intended outcomes. Key considerations may include feasibility and acceptability. For example, if developing a physical activity intervention, will all target students have the physical ability to participate in the activities required? Some interventions may entail quite substantial changes to the way courses are delivered and require considerable time and resources to implement (for example, changes to the curriculum of teaching practice). Where interventions may be rolled out to whole cohorts of students (rather than experienced on an opt-in basis) it is particularly important that this sort of intervention is subject to piloting with those students who may be affected, so that providers can ensure the intervention is acceptable and feasible before it is implemented at scale.

Further guidance:

A recorded Theory of Change webinar
Theory of Change workshop resources
Core Theory of Change templates
Enhanced Theory of Change templates