Blog19 February 2026
Following a successful bid in TASO’s invitation to tender for student success projects, Middlesex University is working with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) to evaluate a tailored transition support programme for first-year students.
A personalised approach to supporting transition into university
Starting university can be a daunting time for students: getting to grips with timetables and studying, meeting other students and navigating the social scene – and for many, being away from home for the first time.
Providers recognise that this is a critical point in a student’s higher education journey, and that it is important to provide transition support. However, there is a lack of evidence about the efficacy of these transition support programmes in general across the sector. To address this, TASO is working with Middlesex University to help evaluate its package of transition support.
At Middlesex University, incoming students complete a pre-arrival survey asking them to indicate the areas of support they think would be useful to them. Alongside business-as-usual support, students are then signposted to specific activities organised around four thematic strands:
- Learning
- Community
- Wellbeing
- Employability
For example, a student reporting low confidence in building connections may be guided toward a mentoring session focused on building a sense of belonging at university. Another who expresses uncertainty about exam readiness may be linked to academic skills sessions. The aim is to ensure that students receive support aligned to their needs, easing the transition into university life and, ultimately, improving continuation into second year.
How the programme will be evaluated
The impact of this personalised support will be evaluated through a large-scale mixed-methods randomised controlled trial (RCT) combining quantitative impact analysis and in-depth interviews with students and staff.
First year students will be randomly allocated into two groups – one will be offered the personalised support package; and the other will receive business-as-usual support through the university’s student support services – allowing us to compare outcomes across these groups and assess the impact. The mixed methods approach will help us to understand not only whether the programme improves student outcomes, but also how and why.
Specifically, the evaluation will examine how the programme has an impact on academic attainment and continuation into second year, as well as engagement with university services, sense of belonging, confidence in academic skills, and the experience of the programme for both students and staff.
Starting with an idea
Middlesex University had already identified a promising set of potential activities within the programme but wanted to understand how these activities would collectively lead to longer-term outcomes, such as attainment. For example:
- How might employability workshops improve academic confidence and grades?
- Can study skills workshops effectively support student wellbeing, and, in turn, continuation?
This is a common challenge in programme design: it can be hard to articulate the link between the proposed activities and the desired change.
Theory of change frameworks help address this by making explicit the causal pathways – how activities are expected to lead to key outcomes. Clearly articulating these pathways ensures that we understand not just what is happening in the programme, but why and how those actions are expected to produce the big-picture outcomes we really care about.
Using theory of change as a development tool
To strengthen the programme’s logic, and ensure activities were linked to outcomes, TASO and NIESR facilitated a series of ‘Causal pathway workshops’ with the Middlesex team – one for each thematic strand. NIESR evaluators led the online workshops and were joined by programme leads, delivery staff and student-facing practitioners.
What the workshops explored
Learning – study skills sessions: Logistics such as group size and session scheduling were discussed, as well as mapping out the causal pathways linking how the sessions can improve attainment. For example, study skills sessions teach students to use feedback, creating a cycle of continuous improvement in assessments to increase exam performance. Ideas on optimisation were also explored, such as how the session’s impact could be sustained through reflection and planning activities.
Community – belonging workshops: Community workshops were differentiated from standard induction activities, emphasising the smaller, more interactive groups. The causal pathway was also outlined: Sessions enhance a sense of belonging by normalising shared challenges and building peer connections, which are then maintained through organised follow-up meetups.
Wellbeing – support: This workshop led to a significant re-evaluation of the original plans to target study-related stress through academic support sessions. Designers questioned whether the planned ‘academic support’ would actually meet wellbeing needs, as the pre-arrival survey indicated that students reported more general wellbeing concerns. This led to the consideration of providing general wellbeing – rather than academic-specific – support, better reflecting students’ survey responses. Discussions tested the feasibility of offering one-to-one in-person sessions or broader support through a digital wellbeing platform.
Employability – AI careers programme: Feasibility discussions informed activity planning by highlighting capacity constraints, such as room bookings and staffing. Ways to mitigate the risk of ‘backfire effects’, where inappropriate AI responses might demotivate students, were also discussed. The causal link between the career sessions and academic engagement was clarified: sessions increase the perceived value of students’ degrees by highlighting career prospects, boosting motivation which in turn supports academic engagement and performance.
By developing and challenging the theory of change alongside the activities, the team clarified the unique role of each activity within the programme and how it should influence the key outcomes.
For example, it became clear that the purpose of the employability workshops was to help students understand the relevance and future value of their chosen subject. This increase in value is expected to boost motivation, which in turn supports engagement and performance in academic work.
Improved confidence and achievements are then expected to contribute to higher continuation rates into second year. Across the programme, similar refinements strengthened the coherence and purpose of each activity.
Singing from the same theory-of-change sheet
One of the key strengths of the workshop process was bringing together:
- programme delivery teams
- activity developers
- student-facing staff
- external evaluators.
This ensured the final programme was theory-driven, feasible in practice, and measurable through evaluation. Delivery staff contributed key insights into what would work on the ground and the realities of student needs, while evaluators led open discussions to stress-test causal assumptions, strengthening the underlying logic of causal pathways with staff. These combined insights resulted in a shared understanding of the likely causal link between the activities and outcomes, grounded in day-to-day realities, and supported smoother activity planning, evaluation planning, and a stronger sense of shared ownership across teams.
From theory to evaluation readiness
As a result of the workshops the delivery team and the evaluators now have:
- a clear, shared theory of change with detailed causal pathways
- a coherent, well-sequenced programme plan grounded in both theory and realistic delivery constraints
- a robust and ToC-driven evaluation protocol developed by NIESR
The tailored support programme is now positioned not only to support students, but also to generate robust evidence about what works and why.
Looking ahead
Middlesex University has already begun applying this theory-of-change-driven design approach to other initiatives. Embedding causal thinking early in programme development helps ensure new programmes are coherent, targeted, and evaluation-ready from the outset.
Working with TASO on this pre-arrival project has given us a replicable format to use across our work to improve student outcomes. We are utilising the workshop formats and documentation templates to help us create theories of change for all activities within our access and participation plan strategies.
– Dr David Gilani, Head of Access and Participation
“We plan to replicate the approaches run by TASO (and evaluation specialists from NIESR) to train up more staff so that we have an evaluation community of practice that can help guide all our future work in this area. We are also working in partnership with our students’ union to employ current students who can be trained in these approaches as well.” – Dr David Gilani, Head of Access and Participation
This case study demonstrates the power of using theory of change as a development tool – rather than a post-hoc description – to move promising ideas closer to real, measurable impact.