Blog14 August 2025
Last night, hundreds of thousands of students across England went to bed wondering whether their years of dedication and revision had paid off. This morning, they woke up with bated breath, nervously refreshing the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) Hub to find out if they had secured a place on their chosen higher education course.
While many students have undergone this rite of passage, this year’s academic cohort differs from recent cohorts in an important way: they are the first group since 2019 to have completed both their GCSEs and A-levels under standard pre-pandemic exam conditions. With today’s release of UCAS data, we now have the opportunity to explore whether this year marks a true ‘return to normal’ or if there are enduring inequalities from the COVID-19 pandemic that need to be addressed.
Growing number of students with acceptances on results day
There has been a rise in the number of students accepted to higher education courses on A-level results day over the past decade, with a noticeable surge during the years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The surge in acceptances between 2019 and 2022 was driven by two main factors. First, more students applied due to a growing population of 18-year-olds and uncertainty caused by the pandemic. Second, more students met the results required by their offers. A-level exams were cancelled in 2020 and 2021, and replaced with centre- and teacher-assessed grades, respectively. Both standard exam alternatives lead to grade inflation. Most universities kept their usual offer conditions, but the rise in top grades meant more students qualified. Although exams returned in 2022, there was more generous grading and other accommodations in place. In 2023 , GSCEs and A-levels returned to pre-pandemic exam standards, although some protections, including grade boundaries, remained in place. At the national level, grade inflation decreased and the proportion of students receiving top A-level grades in 2023 was in line with 2019.
This year was another record year in terms of acceptances, and the vast majority of students (82%) woke up to the good news that they secured their top choice.
But this rise in acceptances to higher education has not been distributed evenly
Although acceptances to higher education have increased overall, this growth has not been evenly shared. A closer look at entry rates – calculated as accepted applicants divided by population estimates – reveals that the growth in acceptances between 2019 and 2021 was disproportionately higher among students from the least deprived areas compared to those from the most deprived areas. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in England, based on factors such as income, employment, health and education. Quintile 1 represents the most deprived areas, while quintile 5 represents the least deprived.
Between 2016 and 2019, the gap in entry rates between students from IMD quintile 1 and IMD quintile 5 was narrowing. In 2019, the gap was 20 percentage points (pp), down from 21 pp in 2016. If this trend had continued, the gap was projected to narrow even more to 17pp by 2025. However, the gap widened during the COVID-19 pandemic to 23pp in 2021. In 2025, the gap remains elevated above the pre-pandemic projection.
The pandemic also exacerbated existing regional disparities in entry rates to higher education. London is typically the region with the largest higher education entry rate in England. In 2016, the biggest gap was between London and the North East at 7pp and the smallest gap was between London and the South East at 3pp. Although a widening regional gap was already emerging before 2019, the pandemic accelerated this trend. In 2025, the disparities in both the North East and South East are the same as they were when they reached their peak in 2021.
What has contributed to this growing entry rate gap?
The reasons for the growing gap between 2020 and 2021 are multifaceted. While not everything can be attributed to the pandemic, it is undeniable that this upheaval had a disparate impact on students from different regions and levels of advantage. The Education Policy Institute report ’Covid-19 and disadvantage gaps in England 2021’ concludes that a combination of greater losses of learning for students from disadvantaged backgrounds and certain regions, and the unequal benefits of grade inflation, contributed to the growing gaps during this period.
Although the academic cohort receiving their grades today faced less disruption to their exams, their early years of secondary education – specifically in Year 8 and 9 – were still significantly affected by the pandemic. Additionally, the return to pre-pandemic grading standards for GCSEs resulted in fewer students meeting the criteria to progress to A-levels compared to previous years. This combined with the fact that fewer students from the most disadvantaged backgrounds are continuing their education beyond Key Stage 4 raises an important question: does this trend reflect genuine student choice, or are schools and colleges failing to adequately consider context, including the long shadow of COVID, when making admissions decisions?
Looking ahead: the case for a renewed focus on regional inequalities
While it is encouraging to see that more 18-year-olds are choosing to invest in their future through higher education, it is imperative that this increased opportunity is shared equitably. The levelling-up days may be behind us but the data today provides compelling evidence that the need to prioritise tackling regional and related socio-economic inequality is just as urgent as it was during the height of the pandemic.
You can find the code behind this analysis on TASO’s GitHub page.